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Oil prices slide ahead of OPEC meeting  With just a day ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scheduled meeting in Vienna, impromptu talks between member nations Saudi Arabia and Venezuela with nonmembers Russia and Mexico ended without announcing any kind of agreement. On top of this, signals sent by individual member nations thus far suggest there is little consensus on whether and how to reduce output and stabilize prices. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery fell to USD 73.60 a barrel, while Brent crude oil dipped to USD 78 a barrel on these developments. What could be agreed  on Thursday  is stricter enforcement of the existing production quota of 30 million barrels a day. Yet this is unlikely to be enough to reverse the fall by more than 30% since June in oil prices as there are no guarantees of any production cutbacks nor it is clear how non-OPEC members will react. It looks to us as if the decline in oil pr...

Interesting Fact : GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant bias: Bearish On Friday, November 14, 2014, Gold bounced upwards. That was a break from the equilibrium zone that was formed last week and the bounce was strong enough to threaten the existing bearish bias. In the US, Thanksgiving Day is on November 27 this year, being the 4th Thursday of November, and the unique thing about Thanksgiving is that Gold tends to rally around this period – with impressive consistency. Just check price data around Thanksgiving Day and you will see that Gold has tended to rise around the middle of November each year with the rally usually starting several trading days before Thanksgiving. Although this has not occurred every single year, it has certainly been the case for most of the past 12.

Buy EURUSD at CMP 1.2460 SL 1.2430 TP 1.2510

Buy AUDUSD at CMP .8700 SL .8670 TP .8750

Buy GBPUSD at CMP 1.5912 SL 1.5885 TP 1.5955 & 1.6000

EUR/USD moved higher  on Tuesday  but found resistance at our black downtrend line and the 50-period moving average. During the early European morning, the pair is trading fractionally below that line. A decisive move above is necessary to trigger extensions towards our 1.2535 (R1) resistance zone. The pair is not giving any clear short-term directional impulses, as shown by our 4-hour momentum studies. The RSI is on its 50 line and moving sideways, while the MACD is above its trigger line approaching the zero level. In the bigger picture, since the price structure remains lower highs and lower lows below both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages, I maintain my view that the overall outlook of EUR/USD remains negative. • Support: 1.2360 (S1), 1.2300 (S2), 1.2250 (S3). • Resistance: 1.2535 (R1), 1.2620 (R2), 1.2745 (R3) . Source : Ironfx

Buy stop GBJPY at 182.05 TP - 182.50 SL - 181.70

GBPUSD 4H

Hello All....... USDJPY looking at monthly chart it has broken the monthly resistance and it's next target will be 117... we need to look for new price action to see if we get any further sell signal

Position: Short (from 1.2796 on 10/16; risk to 1.2841) R: 1.2885/1.2840 S: 1.2730/1.2704 EUR/USD 360-min [last 1.2764]: Oscillators have turned down on 360-min and daily basis. Looking at this morning’s high as minor Wave 2 completion; setting the stage for Wave 3 down with scope to test the recent swing low at 1.2499 (labeled Wave III). Key news today: FRANKFURT, Oct 20 (Reuters) – Germany risks coming dangerously close to recession, the central bank said on Monday in a forecast that predicted little or no economic growth in the second half of the year. Read more:  http://www.babypips.com/blogs/currency-currents/forex-eurusd-20141021.html#ixzz3GuzyHEkF

Silver Trade Setup We have seen good rally on Silver since starting of June. Price pulled up from 18.60 to 21.10 within three weeks and killing all the sellers who are selling from high.. On 24th June divergence on RSI found on H4 chart and their was a drop from 21.15 to 20.70 price but this was not the Bears ride since the global long term trend is still Bullish !! We are seeing price is continues hitting the daily bar resistance at 21.15 from last three days. Looking at weekly chart trend is fully up until 22.10 price and we may see a down fall from there.. Market may confuse traders as looking at Daily chart RSI is showing overbought and price is still roaming around at resistance.... Avoid Further selling !!

Traders around the world were expecting major draw down in gold yesterday from FOMC words but the news we got yesterday from the FOMC was the same as other Central banks they are all on hold for now. Nothing suggests any need for an immediate change in central bank policy. Accordingly, we are likely to remain in current ranges for some time. Gold remains below the blue downward sloping resistance line. Also, downward slope seen in the RSI and we have noticed MACD zero crossover, I would expect the Yellow metal to move lower and challenge the support level of 1280 (S1), where a break may trigger extensions towards the next one at 1268 (S2). Support: 1280 (S1), 1268 (S2), 1250 (S3). Resistance: 1305 (R1), 1330 (R2), 1342 (R3) 4H Chart However, we can identify positive divergence between the daily MACD and the price action, indicating decelerating bearish momentum, and this could probably keep any further downtrend . ...

The crude markets fell during the session on Friday and we have witnessed the waterfall from 104.96 till 100.59 during last week 5 trading day session. Looking at daily chart there is strong support at 98.83 and we may expect a down fall till that movement. Technical commentary On daily chart 200 period SMA giving strong sport to Crude oil at 100.59 and if the price breaks that level we can see bears in mood and more downfall, In the morning when market opened we observed that price was bounced back from same level and touched the 101.49 level . But looking at daily to weekly trend we can advise to our Investors to wait for confirmation and buy from dip, The 98 level should be a important supportive area also, and as a result we believe anywhere between here and there that show signs of support is a buying opportunity. Oscillators and Indicators like RSI is below 50 which signifies that the trend is down until it comes to 30 there is a MACD bearish crossover also takes pl...

No more buy on gold..... hard to believe holding strong support at 1276, MA 100 is supporting here and heavy selling pressure didn't able to break it. Also, MACD fast line crossover above slow line saying to sell it and if we look Stochastic clear signals for more bearish... If breaks 1276 then we can expect 1265 and 1250

For past couple of weeks Gold has turned to bearish after establishing a six-month high at 1392 approx on 17-Mar and started his downfall. A major factor that pushed this yellow metal through technical level was Fed chairman Yellen’s comments on 19 th of March 2014. Gold continued moving lower and reached 1285 level but did not breach this level as its getting a strong support from trendline. Also, by applying the Fibonacci retracement tool the 1285 matches with the 50% retracement level and Gold has retraced from here. Although a strong reversal signal seen on Gold’s Daily chart which is a “Bullish Harami” candle, it is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern which is moderately reliable and tell us that the trend is about to change. By following the trends the 50-period moving average crossed above the 200-period moving average and this is an additional negative indication which called “Golden Crossover.” However, the RSI (5) is giving us oversold signal and it is below 30 terr...

5 Events Could Cause Volatility Spikes Tomorrow Who needs the NFP Friday when we have FIVE major economic reports coming up tomorrow! Here’s what you need to know about tomorrow’s major events. BOE monetary policy statement (12:00 pm GMT) With the manufacturing, construction, and services PMIs printing mixed reports pound traders will likely look to the Bank of England (BOE) decision for direction. Unfortunately, the BOE isn’t expected to make any changes to its interest rate and monthly asset purchases. If this is the case then we’ll have to wait for the  Monetary Policy Committee  (MPC) meeting minutes to see what the central bank thinks of the economy. ECB monetary policy statement (12:45 pm GMT) In his last European Central Bank (ECB) press conference Draghi hinted that deterioration in inflation outlook or “unwarranted” tightening of short-term money markets could trigger action from the central bank. But with euro zone inflation, GDP, and PMI surprising to...

By Kathy Lien While investors are eagerly awaiting Janet Yellen’s testimony today before the Senate Banking Committee, the sell-off in currencies, equities and Treasury yields indicate that risk aversion is the overriding theme in the financial markets this morning.  A smaller decline in durable goods orders helped to ease the selling but with jobless claims rising, the relief rally in USD/JPY and other major currencies was limited.  Durable goods orders fell only 1% in the month of January compared to a forecast of -1.7% but what made the report positive for the greenback was that excluding transportation orders, durable goods rose 1.1%. After the sharp decline in December, investors were really hoping for a rebound in January and even though there was a large pullback in transportation orders, demand for other goods improved significantly – a sign that confidence could be improving in the economy. Meanwhile the 14k increase in jobless claims is discouraging but not overl...

Leverage is the ability to use something small to control something big. Specific to forex trading, it means you can have a small amount of capital in your account controlling a larger amount in the market. Stock traders  will call this trading on margin. In forex trading there is no interest charged on the margin used and it doesn't matter what kind of trader you are or what kind of credit you have. If you have an account and the broker offers margin, you can trade on it. The obvious advantage of using leverage is that you can make a considerable amount of money with only a limited amount of capital. The problem is, that you can also lose a considerable amount of money trading with leverage. It all depends on how wisely you use it and how conservative your risk management is. Leverage Amounts Leverage is usually given in a fixed amount that can vary with different brokers. Each broker gives out leverage based on their own rules and regulations. The amounts are typically 50:1, 100...

The Japanese yen was the big winner of a volatile week that saw new levels for a few currency pairs, and ended with risk off sentiment. The Fed decision is naturally the most important event, and is accompanied by the first releases of GDP in the US and the UK, as well as other events. Here is an outlook on the main highlights on the coming days. US existing home sales disappointed with 4.87 million. Even though the next taper is on the way, it served as an opportunity to sell the USD against the recovering pound (lower UK unemployment rate) and euro (strong German PMIs). It was a different story against the Aussie and the CAD, as both were hit by their central banks. A talk about AUD/USD at 0.80 in Australia and relatively dovish comments in Canada sent these currencies to multi-year lows. And towards the end of the exciting week, the crisis in Argentina together with fears about China boosted the safe haven yen. Let’s start, Updates: German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German...

Event risk peaks today with the release of the US NFP report for December.  OK or better data will be USD-supportive though whether this is able to generate much impact on EURUSD remains to be seen.  Mixed EZ data and “strengthened forward guidance” from the ECB this week has failed to have much downward impact on the EUR and the market remains well supported in the mid/upper 1.35s at the moment.  We still rather favour looking to sell EURUSD rallies to the mid 1.36s for a push back to 1.33/1.35. USD/CAD: Taking the Under on Canadian Jobs Open 1.0863     Range 1.0836/1.0866     Previous Close 1.0843 The CAD got battered by the contrasting Canada/US trade data earlier in the week (USDCAD rose 1.2% on the day) so the prospect of a combination of better-than-expected US data and worse-than-expected Canadian data, at least according to TD’s forecasts, suggests significant upside risks for funds today.  We don’t think this move up is ...

When I have a string of losses I pause and reflect and ponder if it is me trading badly or just the market environment not being conducive to my trading method. Here are 10 questions we will do well to ask ourselves at times when we seem to be out of synch with the market. Are we taking good entries? We have to enter at a high probability moments to put the odds of winning on our side. Buying support bounces, shorting resistance levels, or entering on confirmed break outs. Are we trading too big? Big position sizes can cause us to stress to much and exit too quickly, we must trade a comfortable level that allows us to overcome our emotions and stick to our trading plan. Are we risking too much per trade? We need to cap our risks at no more than 1% to 2% capital at risk per trade. It is very difficult to make back big losses on a percentage basis it is much easier to steadily grow an account by avoiding those big losses with correct position sizing. Are we trying to fight ...

The US trade data usually isn’t market affecting, and indeed yesterday’s US trade data for November didn’t have an immediate impact on the FX market, but it gradually lifted the dollar as economists started to consider its implications for growth. The deficit narrowed sharply to USD 34.3bn from USD 40.6bn, far better than market expectations of USD 40.0bn, as exports reached a record high (+5.2% yoy) and imports declined (-1.1% yoy). Most of the improvement in the goods trade balance was due to petroleum; exports are rising and imports are falling due to increasing US domestic oil production. The US Energy Information Administration said that US oil production in 2015 should be at a 43-year high – so much for “peak oil” in the US – and the top Republican on the Senate Energy Committee urged an end ban on exporting crude oil. That means the prospect is for oil to cause further improvement in the trade balance in the future as well. The important point for the FX market yesterday was t...

The Big Picture A surprisingly weak US service-sector PMI caused further mean reversion in US asset markets and weakened the dollar somewhat, but it still managed to gain against several of its G10 counterparts, indicating continued underlying strength (see technical section on EUR/USD). The December non-manufacturing ISM index fell to 53.0, a six-month low, from 53.9. The decline was largely due to deterioration in new orders, but since that series includes many weather-sensitive sectors, such as construction and agriculture, it may be due more to the weather than to the economy. Nonetheless US bond yields fell – the 10-year Treasury was down about 4 bps – and implied interest rates on the longer-dated Fed Funds futures declined 4-5 bps, while the stock market fell for the third consecutive day, continuing the mean reversion that has characterized US asset markets in 2014. The dollar lost some support as US rates eased, yet it still managed to open this morning stronger compared...

EUR/USD  had a roller coaster week, ending 2013 on high ground only to crash in the wake of 2014. What’s next? The ECB rate decision is all important, especially Draghi’s press conference. In addition, service PMIs, German inflation data, retail sales,  employment data will move markets. Here is an outlook on the interesting events ahead. Here is an outlook on the major events at the year’s end and the beginning of 2014 and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD According to the confirmed manufacturing PMIs, Germany and France continue to diverge, with the former expected to grow nicely and the latter to squeeze. Spanish data released last week  posted a great start to 2014 . Unemployment claims plunged by 107.6 thousand. In the US,  data has been quite good , enabling the comeback of the dollar after retreating on thin volume in late 2013. The pair  broke below long term uptrend support  and stopped only before the week ended. Let’s s...